#4 Jenson Button, F1 World Champion 2009 (?)

Yep, I really am going out on a limb here - Jenson Button will be this year's F1 World Champion. Is there anyone out there that wants to bet against me?
The F1 season is quickly approaching half-distance, We've just had the Turkish GP and Silverstone is in less than 2 weeks. Button has chalked up six victories in the seven races so far. Now that's definitely Championship-winning form, but it seems to be the British way to lack the self-belief in our sportsmen. I won't go on about the fairytale of how this team that almost-never-was, I will throw out some thoughts on how I feel this season is pretty much decided (whether that's a good thing or bad...)


It's no secret that if you have the best car, then you'd expect to do pretty well, but there is some Jenson factor in there - especially when we compare to the fortunes of Barrichello. Button is clearly a confidence driver, and he is on a high right now, it seems that near-nothing is impossible. Going back to his first win for proof on the confidence boost - Button was the highest scoring of all drivers for the remainder of that 06 season.

Where is the real title challenge going to come from?

Speaking of which, Jenson's current form does mirror that season to a certain extent. That season was Alonso's defense of his title, and he built up a points advantage over his rivals only to maintain that lead by not taking any risks and always ensuring that he finished in the high points if the win was risky, when Schumacher made a charge late on in the year. Button has the same comfort, and perhaps more. His nearest rival is his teammate, who is only just in touching distance as he has the same car. Even if Barrichello could convert more races into higher point finishes, I believe that Jenson would be at least one step higher. It could perhaps look like favouritism by the team, but it's this confidence that has taken Jenson, arguably a great driver that has never quite had the car to get results, to another level - and has brought on comparisons to Schumacher.

Six out of seven is Button's form, the only one that was missed was won by Vettel of the Red Bull in the wet. At the moment, the Red Bulls are the only real challengers to Brawn in terms of pace. That being said, Vettel is usually the one most likely to mix it up with the Brawns in qualifying but in my opinion, at the moment, he lacks the racecraft to go out and fight for the win. His race wins have all been on pole in a very strong (if not strongest) car, where he has a clear track ahead of him, and can control the race. There have been a couple of times where he has been stuck behind slower cars (Massa and no doubt Trulli woo! woo!) and he not been able to get past (although that may be down to the Red Bull aero design, not being able to get close enough).

Take the recent Turkish GP - Vettel went for a risky 3 stop strategy, the reasoning being less time on the problematic soft tyres, and overall having a lighter car so he can keep up the pace. That is, the strategy only works if you can keep up the pace - a mistake by Vettel on the opening lap let through Button, so that meant he would have to pass him (possibly twice), but after getting close after the first pit stops, he could not get close. Even without the lap 1 mistake, Vettel conceded that he would not have been able to keep Button behind, and I would have to agree. Following the several laps stuck behind Button, Vettel's strategy backfired and his teammate Webber was able to take 2nd - Vettel clearly dejected during the podium ceremony.


Looking at Brawn's other rivals this season, the Toyotas looked initially promising but seemed to have dropped back to the obscurity of the midfield as was the case in previous seasons. The Ferraris have improved their pace such that they make Q3 with a high probability, but you're kidding yourself if you think they can contend for wins. McLaren, also struggled like Ferrari, but have not been able to turn round their fortunes thus far. Hamilton has transferred from disappointment and frustration during interviews to outright bemusement. So strange, I was half-expecting a period of Hamilton and McLaren dominance after winning the driver's championship last year, and narrowly missing out in his maiden season. A big disappointment for myself has been the Williams team, who thanks to the double diffuser advantage, have looked promising, but have not really been able to translate into anything much except the odd handful of points here and there.

That being said, Vettel is usually the one most likely to mix it up with the Brawns in qualifying but in my opinion, at the moment, he lacks the racecraft to go out and fight for the win.

So in reflection, where is the real title challenge going to come from? As I mentioned to a friend who dismissed by claims of Button, world champ,following the first couple of races, Button has dominated early on and now has such a points cushion, that if reliability took a turn for the worse, and/or one of the other teams improve and start chalking up the wins, then he would (read: should) be able to manage his points lead and still wrap up the championship comfortably.

Not only will Jenson Button be crowned the winner of the Driver's World Championship, Brawn GP will win the Constructor's Championship. And finally, both championships will NOT come down to the last race and both will be wrapped up several races before the end - that may be dull but I predict it to be the outcome of the current trend of Jenson's and Brawn's dominance.

P.S. A perfect example of a pet peeve of mine - celebrity interviews during Martin Brundle's pit walk. Naomi Campbell was brought in front of the camera, only for her to respond "England!" to the few questions that were asked of her - well done for DC for closing the door on that embarrassment promptly. The BBC coverage then managed to cut away to the model in the Ferrari garage during the race, she must have been supporting Rob Smedley, Massa's race engineer...